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03/16/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The margin of victory was scant once again, but all Lookin At Lucky does is win races.
The two-year-old champion made his 2010 debut a winning one taking the Rebel Stakes last Saturday at Oaklawn Park by only a head over Noble's Promise. The 6-5 favorite got up in the final jump for his sixth victory in seven lifetime starts, with only one coming by more than a length.
The Rebel was the third straight race Lookin At Lucky tangled with Noble's Promise and the Bob Baffert-trained colt has bested his arch-rival each and every time. This one was most impressive, especially since the son of Smart Strike might not have even finished the race due to a scary moment down the backstretch.
As Dublin, the 7-5 second choice, was ranging up from behind Lookin At Lucky in the four-path, jockey Garrett Gomez (in the three-path) chose to keep pace with his challenger by pushing his colt forward as well. Unfortunately, Gomez rode his horse right on the heels of Noble's Promise, who was sitting in third just ahead of Lookin At Lucky, and had to pull back on the reins, losing a good two-lengths in the process.
Last year's Eclipse-Award winner regrouped to wear down his adversary at the wire, ending all speculation that he would not be able to handle true dirt after six straight races over synthetics.
Lookin At Lucky will now try to duplicate the feats of the last three Kentucky Derby champions (Mine That Bird, Big Brown and Street Sense) by winning the Run for the Roses with only two three-year-old prep races.
As for Noble's Promise, there's no shame in running second in his initial start of the year and on conventional dirt. He easily rebuffed Dublin's challenge at the top of the stretch and would have won if the race was a tad shorter. The bay colt can and will be able to handle a distance of ground, which is the one knock on the son of Cuvee.
His dam side is loaded with long distance turf stakes winners, which should assist him in his quest for glory on the first Saturday in May. His mother, The Devil's Trick, is a half-sister to New Economy, who won the 2002 La Prevoyante at 1 1/2-miles, and his second dam, Sunyata, is a half-sister to Battle Creek Girl, who produced multiple graded stakes horses, including Parade Ground, winner of the 1 1/4-mile Lexington Stakes at Belmont Park.
Dublin, the third-place horse, should improve next time out after being the recipient of an ill-timed ride from Corey Nakatani. After closing stoutly in the Southwest Stakes in February, the chestnut son of Afleet Alex had to make two moves in the Rebel despite being carried five-wide around the first turn.
First, Nakatani forced him into a very fast 23 2/5 second-quarter and then parlayed that into a four-wide sweep on the final turn. Come the homestretch, it was obvious the horse had little left to stay with the likes of Lookin At Lucky and Noble's Promise.
With a better ride in the Arkansas Derby, Dublin should be better equipped to compete with Noble's Promise (and maybe Lookin At Lucky if that one returns to Oaklawn Park), but questions about his ability to go nine furlongs will surely be an issue.
The final time for the 1 1/16-mile race was 1:43 seconds flat, 3/5ths of a second faster than the fillies ran in the Honeybee Stakes an hour earlier. Moreover, it was Lookin At Lucky's and Noble Promise's first starts of the season so there is definitely room for improvement. Either way, these two colts have what it takes to be serious Kentucky Derby threats.
AN UNFORGETTABLE PHOTO
Down at Oldsmar, Florida, Odysseus and Schoolyard dreams battled to the wire in the Tampa Bay Derby with a nose separating the two colts. At first glance, it appeared the five, Schoolyard Dreams held off the late surge from number seven Odysseus, but when the numbers flashed on the tote board, it read seven over five.
The margin of victory was an amazing turnaround for Odysseus, who came into the Grade 3 event off a 15-length win in an allowance race. Even more remarkable than getting his nose in front at the wire was how he pulled off the victory in the first place.
Hard-ridden throughout the run down the backstretch, the lightly-raced son of Malibu Moon was left for dead after Schoolyard Dreams swept by him around the final turn. Even longshot Gleam of Hope passed the 2-1 second choice at the top of the stretch.
Surprisingly, Odysseus found another gear and jockey Rajiv Maragh split horses inside the final sixteenth to win by the smallest of margins. The final time was the same 1:44 1/5 he ran in his previous race and only one tick slower than Rule ran in winning the Sam F. Davis.
Odysseus has license to progress as the year moves along, but he's still very green at this stage of his career. And if he goes to Kentucky without another prep race, it's extremely doubtful he'll be up to the challenge to win the nation's most prestigious event.
As for Super Saver, his 2010 debut should prove valuable in his continued development despite finishing third. Remember, he hung on gamely through the stretch losing by only a half-length when it appeared his day was through.
Schoolyard Dreams proved as the fourth choice in the betting that he cannot be taken lightly. On the other hand, this could be the end of the line for local hero Uptowncharlybrown after a disappointing fifth-place finish. With very little graded earnings, it's doubtful he'll remain on the Kentucky Derby trail.
Still, he wasn't disgraced in the loss since he was checked by Super Saver going into the first turn and had little running room on the rail through the stretch. Expect a much better performance in his next outing, especially if his connections do the smart thing and replace jockey Daniel Centeno.
JOE TALAMO STEALS SAN FELIPE
There were a lot of questions going into the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe Stakes concerning Sidney's Candy's ability to wire the field, and after the race, the subject matter still hasn't been answered due to Joe Talamo's fantastic ride aboard the chestnut colt.
American Lion and Interactif failed to mount any sort of early challenge to Sidney's Candy so Talamo was allowed to ration out Candy Ride's speed through much of the race with incredibly slow fractions of 24 1/5 and 48 2/5. After six-furlongs had been run in a pedestrian 1:13 2/5 (a 25 second third- quarter), the race was all but over. The John Sadler-trained three-year-old hung on for an easy half-length victory over Interactif with the Robert B. Lewis winner Caracortado finishing third.
It will be interesting to see if Talamo and Sidney's Candy will be able to control the pace in the Santa Anita Derby the way they did this past Saturday. If so, there's a good chance he'll be able to win going nine-furlongs. If not, he won't be a significant player at Churchill Downs come May 1.
As for the rest of the field, Interactif fared very well in his first Pro-Ride experience and should be a force in the rematch. Caracortado, ran effectively, but wasn't up to the task after being victimized by the slow pace.
Fourth-place finisher American Lion is definitely not a two-turn horse on Pro- Ride while Dave in Dixie proved he is simply not good enough.
THE NEW JEFF FRANK TOP 12
1) Lookin At Lucky; 2) Alphie's Bet; 3) Eskendereya; 4) Noble's Promise; 5) Make Music for Me; 6) Dublin; 7) Super Saver; 8) Awesome Act; 9) Rule; 10) Stay Put; 11) Connemara; 12) Radiohead.
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12-game slide in the Twin Cities, where the Wild shoot for a third straight
victory ton
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Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ernie Els' victory Sunday at the WGC-CA
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
Michael Vick is back, Brett Favre isn't and the NFC East remains the best division in the NFC, maybe in all of football.
As players start to gather for the start of another season, some things change and some stay the same in the world of the NFL.
The NFC East has been the dominant division in the National Conference for a while, despite limited playoff success, save for the New York Giants surprise Super Bowl win two seasons ago.
Hell, there's a generation of kids in Texas who have never seen the Cowboys win a playoff game (last win was in 1996).
But collectively, the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins (well, maybe not so much the Redskins) are as good as a division gets in an NFC conference that has struggled to stay competitive with the AFC side.
Sports bettors have both acknowledged the NFC East's dominance, as one glance at the NFL future odds menu will show.
Looking over the NFL betting odds at online sports book MySportsbook.com we see the top three teams listed to win the NFC Championship are all from the NFC East:
Dallas Cowboys - 7 - 1
Philadelphia Eagles - 13 - 2
New York Giants - 9 - 2
Slotting in behind these three are two teams from the NFC North: the Minnesota Vikings (15-2) and the Chicago Bears (10-1).
Again, despite the lack of recent playoff success, the Dallas Cowboys are popular with the sports betting community, as they hold 14% of all the money wagered on who will win the NFC Championship.
So far, the New York Giants are the bettors' favorite to represent their conference in the Super Bowl, as they have 24% of the overall NFC Championship betting volume.
And what about the Philadelphia Eagles? For the most part, the Eagles had a very productive offseason, the kind that could bring them back to the top.
They had a good draft adding the likes of WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy.
Unfortunately, the team received a blow when long-time defensive coordinator Jim Johnson passed away on Tuesday.
But this team will make a real run at the division title this year. Going into the regular season, Philly is listed at +240 to win the division.
Last season the Eagles were 9-6-1 SU and 10-6 ATS.
Teams from the NFC East will play teams from the AFC West in the regular season and the Eagles haven't really been a good bet in the last 20 games against the likes of San Diego, Oakland, K.C. and Denver, only going 8-12 ATS.
Two seasons removed from that Super Bowl title, the New York Giants see themselves listed as the odds-on favorite in NFC East championship futures at +162.
Plaxico Burress is gone and with him all the bad publicity surrounding the gun in the sweatpants incident, but can they replace him in the offense?
Last season the Giants were a very reliable bet going 12-4 ATS.
In the Giants' last 20 games against fellow teams from the NFC East; they are 13-7 ATS.
Dallas is listed at +240 to win the division.
Dallas went 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS last season and with the amount of talent the Cowboys have, a similar performance won't do.
The Cowboys have been atrocious against divisional rivals, going 6-14 ATS in their last 20.
The Washington Redskins are longshots to win the division at +550.
Visit MySportsbook.com for free sportsbook odds RSS feeds go to MySportsbook.com for all your betting football needs.
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